80% of Americans Want Prediction Markets Regulated as Gaming, 2026 Poll Finds

A fresh survey from the American Gaming Association has delivered a clear signal to regulators and lawmakers: American consumers overwhelmingly want prediction markets classified and supervised as gambling products, not financial assets.

The AGA's poll of 2,268 U.S. adults found that 80% of respondents believe prediction markets should fall under gambling regulation rather than financial markets oversight. The finding arrives as prediction market platforms continue to expand their user bases and as federal agencies debate the proper regulatory home for these products.

Market Classification at a Crossroads

The regulatory question has become increasingly urgent as prediction market operators scale operations. Platforms like Polymarket and newer entrants backed by major sportsbooks have attracted millions in trading volume, drawing scrutiny from both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees derivatives, and potential gaming regulators.

The public's preference for gambling-based regulation reflects concerns that prediction markets—which allow wagering on real-world events from election outcomes to sports results—are functionally gambling products and should be treated accordingly. Current federal law largely exempts prediction markets from CFTC oversight through a 2000 relief order, creating ambiguity around their true regulatory status.

What This Means for Operators

The AGA survey provides political cover for gambling industry voices arguing that prediction markets belong in their regulatory ecosystem. For major operators already licensed across multiple U.S. jurisdictions, such a shift could simplify compliance. However, it could also create friction for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have positioned themselves as financial contracts rather than gaming.

DraftKings has taken a different approach, launching its own prediction market product while maintaining its core sportsbook license—a positioning that could benefit if regulators adopt the public's preference for gambling classification.

What to Watch

Regulatory clarity on prediction markets is likely to emerge in 2027 as Congress and federal agencies respond to public sentiment and industry lobbying. States may also begin drafting their own rules, potentially creating a patchwork that favors established gaming operators with multi-state infrastructure over pure prediction market plays.

The survey timing—with prediction markets gaining prominence in political and financial discourse—suggests the AGA is actively shaping the regulatory narrative as federal agencies prepare guidance.