80% of Americans Want Prediction Markets Regulated as Gambling: AGA Poll 2026

Public Backs Gambling Regulation for Prediction Markets

A substantial majority of Americans believe prediction markets should face gambling-style regulation rather than financial oversight, according to new polling released by the American Gaming Association.

The AGA survey, which included 2,268 U.S. adults, found that eight in ten respondents favour classifying prediction markets as gambling products. The finding underscores a clear regulatory preference among the general public as prediction market platforms expand their reach and visibility across the country.

Implications for Regulatory Framework

The polling data arrives during a pivotal moment for prediction market oversight in the United States. Platforms including Kalshi and DraftKings Prediction have grown their user bases significantly, yet the regulatory classification of these products remains contested between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (treating them as derivatives) and gambling regulators advocating for consumer protection standards aligned with sports betting.

Public sentiment carries weight in regulatory debates, particularly as Congress considers legislation governing prediction markets. The AGA's findings suggest that lawmakers face constituent demand for stricter oversight aligned with gambling regulations rather than the lighter touch applied to commodities markets.

What to Watch

Regulators and prediction market operators should monitor continued public sentiment as these platforms mature. If polling trends remain consistent, expect renewed congressional attention to prediction market classification and potential bipartisan calls for harmonised gambling-style rules.